Think clearly
These pieces are about how to make better decisions and think more clearly. They cover mental models like the map is not the territory, Annie Duke's thinking in bets, and three simple decision rules. Agrippa's trilemma adds a humbling reminder that no belief can be fully proven. 10 picks from the Bez Tytułu newsletter, in reading order.
The picks
Mental Models Used by History's Greatest Minds
Watch · youtube.com · Issue #205
Dante Borgese's video introduces mental models for better thinking. Its chapters cover the map is not the territory, circle of competence, first principles, second-order thinking, probabilistic thinking, inversion, Occam's Razor, Hanlon's Razor, and the Eisenhower Matrix. The description links a free weekly ideas Substack and a paid Gumroad PDF.
Three rules for decisions that matter
Short · tiktok.com · Issue #208
Three decision heuristics: if you cannot decide, say no; when equal, take the short-term pain; choose the calmer long-term path.
The speaker shares three decision heuristics. If you cannot decide, the answer is no. When two options seem equal, take the one more painful in the short term. Choose the option that leaves you more at peace in the long term. Decisions should focus on who you are with, what you do and where you live.
Key points- If you can't decide, the answer is no
- When two options seem equal, take the more painful short-term one
- Choose the option that leaves you more equanimous in the long term
A short take on critical thinking
Short · instagram.com · Issue #192
A short Instagram post on how to be a critical thinker.
Admitting ignorance is the start of wisdom
Short · tiktok.com · Issue #224
The speaker says sophisticated thinking starts with admitting ignorance, and he claims he knows less with each passing day.
The speaker argues that people should regularly return to a basic ignorance. Citing Socrates, who said he was wise because he knew he was not, and Picasso, who relearned to paint like children in old age, the speaker says admitting how little one knows is a gift. Asked about wisdom on love or death, the speaker says that with each passing day they know less.
Key points- Socrates was called wise because he knew he was not wise
- Picasso, in old age, said he was now learning to paint like children
- Saying you know very little is a gift, not false modesty, he says
No belief can be fully justified
Short · tiktok.com · Issue #222
The speaker says Agrippa's trilemma shows no belief can be fully justified, so debates turn on status, power or charisma.
The speaker argues that no belief can be proven true, based on Agrippa's trilemma. Any chain of reasoning ends in one of three problems: an infinite regress, circular reasoning, or dogmatic assertion, where someone simply says it is so. The speaker concludes that debates then turn on status, power, or charisma rather than truth.
Key points- Infinite regress: you keep asking for grounds and never reach a foundation
- Circular reasoning: the holy book is true because the holy book says so
- Dogmatic assertion: at some point you just say it is what you think
Thinking in Bets: Deciding Like a Poker Player
Read · fronterablog.com · 5 min · Issue #107
A Frontera article on Annie Duke's 'thinking in bets' framework, drawn from her poker background. It argues that judging decisions by their outcomes is misleading, because luck also shapes results. The three steps are imagining a friend betting against your prediction, calculating expected value and reviewing past decisions apart from their results.
Annie Duke at Talks at Google: Thinking in Bets
Read · youtube.com · 6 min · Issue #107
A 2018 Talks at Google event, about 84 minutes long, with former professional poker player Annie Duke discussing her book Thinking in Bets, moderated by Jordan Thibodeau. Duke applies lessons from cognitive psychology and her poker career to decision-making under uncertainty.
Solve stuck problems by advising a friend
Short · tiktok.com · Issue #102
When stuck, ask what you would tell your best friend, because distance makes problems easier to solve.
The speaker describes self-distancing, a technique where you ask yourself what you would tell your best friend to do. People are good problem solvers but struggle with their own problems because they are too close to the details. The question lets you zoom out, see the big picture and find a solution when you cannot decide.
Key points- The technique is called self-distancing, and the speaker says it fixes a brain glitch
- Asking it zooms you out and shows the bigger picture
- The question is nine words: what would I tell my best friend to do?
Mental Models: A Guide to About 100 Thinking Tools
Read · fs.blog · Issue #3
A Farnam Street guide to mental models, defined as simplified explanations of how something works that help people decide better and spot opportunities. It covers about 100 models grouped by discipline, including circle of competence, first principles, second-order thinking, inversion, and margin of safety. Each entry has a short explanation with examples from business, personal life, and science.
Tit for Tat: A Strategy for Repeated Games
Read · fs.blog · 2 min · Issue #73
Shane Parrish, excerpting The Great Mental Models Volume 2, describes tit for tat, a game-theory strategy for repeated interactions: start by cooperating, then copy the other player's last move. Anatol Rapoport formalized it. Plain tit for tat can lock two players into mutual defection, so a forgiving version that sometimes cooperates after defection performs better. The takeaway is to start with cooperation and forgive honest mistakes.